Chifukwa chiyani Tungsten Carbide ndi Cobalt Poda Zakwera Pamtengo Chaka chino?

I. Cobalt Powder Frenzy: DRC Export Halt + Global New Energy Rush

1. DRC Yadula 80% ya Global Cobalt Supply

Dziko la Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) limapereka78% ya cobalt padziko lapansi. Mu February 2025, mwadzidzidzi adalengeza a4 - mwezi wa cobalt zopangira zopangira kuyimitsidwa, kuwononga cobalt padziko lonse lapansi ndi 26% (zofanana ndi 30,000 - tani zoperewera pamwezi). Osungunula padziko lonse lapansi adakumana ndi "vuto lazinthu zopangira," pomwe mitengo yogwira ntchito idatsika mpaka 58%. Mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono mpaka - apakatikati adatseka, akukankha ufa wa cobaltmitengo imakwera ndi ¥3,500/tani m'mwezi umodzi- kulumpha kwakukulu kuyambira 2024.

2. Mphamvu Zatsopano ndi Zogulitsa za 3C Zimayambitsa Chisokonezo cha Cobalt, Kukhetsa Masamba

Kugulitsa magalimoto atsopano padziko lonse lapansi kukuyembekezeka kukwera 25% mu 2025.mabatire a ternary lithiamu (a EVs) ndi cobalt - mabatire a asidi (pazida za 3C)zikuwonjezera kufunika kwa cobalt, komwe kwakwera matani 150,000. Kamodzi kokwanira kwa masiku 45, ufa wa cobalt umakhalapo tsopanokutha masiku 28 okha- kupezeka - kumafuna kusalinganika komwe ndi mitengo yokwera kwambiri.

3. Hoarding ndi Long - Term Contracts Pangani Mtengo Wozungulira

Kuletsa kugulitsa kunja ku DRC kudadzetsa mantha. Amalonda adapeza zinthu zopitilira 30%, zomwe zidakwera 12%. Kuti mupewe kugwedezeka kwamtsogolo, opanga mabatireadasaina ma contract anthawi yayitali miyezi itatu isanakwane, kupanga mitengo yayitali 8% kuposa malo. Izi zidapanga kuzungulira:kukwera mitengo → kusungitsa zambiri → mitengo yokwera kwambiri.

II. Kuthamanga kwa Tungsten Carbide: Migodi Yolimba Yapadziko Lonse + Magawo Akukula Otukuka

1. Kudula kwa Quota ndi Kutsekera Kuwonongeka kwa Tungsten

Zoposa 60% za tungsten padziko lapansi zimachokera kudera limodzi lofunikira. Mu 2025, magawo oyamba amigodi adadulidwa ndi 6.45%, ndipo 30% ya migodi yaying'ono idatsekedwa chifukwa cha malamulo okhwima a chilengedwe. Mtengo wa black tungsten concentrate (zopangira)kugunda ¥172,000/tani(mbiri yapamwamba). Pofika mwezi wa June, mitengo ya tungsten carbide powder inakwera kwambiri¥364/kg.

2. Photovoltaics, Defense, ndi Drones Drive Explosive Demand

Tungsten carbide sichirinso zida zodulira!Mawaya a Photovoltaic tungsten (ndi> 14% kulowa padziko lonse lapansi)Zikuchulukirachulukira, pomwe makampani otsogola "mizere yopangira mamita mabiliyoni" ikuyenda mosalekeza. Chitetezo (nyukiliya fusion) ndi mafakitale a drone nawonso alanda tungsten carbide, ndi magawo atatuwa.kuwerengera 40% ya zofuna zatsopano- kutaya misika usiku wonse.

3. Maulamuliro a Kutumiza Kutumiza Kumayambitsa Global Stockpiling Spree

Tungsten yayikulu - mayiko otumiza kunja adayambitsa malamulo "amodzi - chilolezo - pa - dongosolo". Kuopa kusowa, ogula kunjaanayamba kusonkhanitsa miyezi 6 koyambirira, kukankhira mitengo yapadziko lonse 13% kuposa milingo yapanyumba. Mu Q1 2025, mitengo ya tungsten carbide yotumiza kunja idalumphira 45%, ndipo ma oda akunja adapanga 35% yazogulitsa - zofuna zakunja zidawonjezera mafuta ambiri pamoto.

III. Kodi Mitengo Idzakwerabe? Kodi Makampani Ayenera Kuyankha Bwanji?

1. Yaifupi - Nthawi: Kusasunthika Kwambiri Pamene Mipata Ikupitirirabe

• Cobalt Powder: Kuletsa kwa kunja kwa DRC kupitilira mpaka Q3 2025, ndikupanga kusiyana kwa matani 32,000 padziko lonse lapansi. Mitengo idzasintha pakati¥260–¥280/kg.
• Tungsten Carbide Powder: Ndi 15,000 - kusiyana kwa zinthu zopangira matani ndi kuchuluka kwamphamvu kwa photovoltaic, mitengo imatha kuyesa¥380/kg.

2. Kutalika - Nthawi: Mpikisano Pakati pa Kusamutsidwa ndi Kukonzekera

• Kobalt: Makampani akusintha kupanga kupita ku Indonesia (ndi osewera apamwamba omwe akumanga kale zomera). Pofika chaka cha 2026, mphamvu zatsopano zitha kuchepetsa kupanikizika.
• Tungsten Carbide: Samalanizida zodulira silicon carbide(yasintha kale 20% ya tungsten carbide). Makampani ayenera kupita kuzinthu zomaliza (mwachitsanzo, nano - grade tungsten carbide, zomwe zimachulukitsa phindu ndi 50%).

3. Njira Zopulumutsira: Chitetezo Chotetezedwa + Kukweza Tech

• M'masiku ochepa patsogolo: Tsekani katundu ndi makontrakitala anthawi yayitali kapena gwiritsani ntchito tsogolo kuti muteteze kuopsa kwamitengo.
• Kutalika - Nthawi: Invest in R & D for high-end products (monga, high - purity cobalt for semiconductors, tungsten for nuclear fusion). Gwiritsani ntchito ukadaulo kuthana ndi zovuta zamitengo.

Kukwera kwamtengo uku kumayendetsedwa ndindondomeko zachigawo, zofuna zapadziko lonse lapansi, ndi masewera akuluakulu. Kwa makampani padziko lonse lapansi, kuchita bwino kumatanthauza kumvetsetsa "chifukwa chiyani zinthu zili zolimba" komanso "ndani akugula zambiri" - ndiye kuti mwina kupeza ma chain kapena kupititsa patsogolo luso. Pokhapokha m'mene angapambane mumkuntho wothandizawu.